Somaliland Political analysis
Somaliland: a stable democracy in Africa!
Is this protest marking ‘the beginning of the end’ for Mr Rayale? By Amin Ali

The following is from the pen of Amin Ali a concerned citizen’s view on the opposition parties recent peaceful protest against the government suspension of the voters list for the upcoming September 27-2009 Presidential Elections.

Friday, August 21, 2009

First, i would like to express my solidarity with the people of Somaliland and specially with those who took their grievance and anger to the streets! Mr Riyale, READ the FINE print and not the small one! I hope he cares enough to read the fine print.
The righteous rage in the streets of Hargeisa, and others big cities, is familiar to Everyone. They recall their own demonstrations that doomed the despotic and tyrannical Syad’s regime almost two decades ago. Somalilanders, hopeful and sympathetic, see lessons in their past for the demonstrators in the capital hargeisa. Although, there is not substantive and striking similarities with the former bloody dictator, there is still some parallels to be drawn. The non-respect of the constitution and the curb of the free media are some of the threats that our nascent nation is facing of late! But yesterday , the demonstrators were unified against a common cause. The inability of the current president to hold a free and fair election triggered their anger and their disgust! With the current political debacle, it was nevertheless welcome to cast their feeling and take it to the street.
The president and his appalling gov must be thinking about the odds of a such protest! If it has, probably, inspired the opposition it might have planted fears and doubts into the hearts of the ones in power! The president ,yesterday ,must be wondering what went wrong after glancing through his many windows! If he’s more as assertive than unassuming in his analysis of the circumstances, he should be aware how “power to the people” can sometimes beat extraordinary odds, and NOT discounts that the odds of those demonstrations can lead to the crumbling of his weak government. On the surface, this government seems ready to collapse. Corruption is widespread, as is cynicism about the country’s leadership. Much will depend on the leadership of the democratic opposition, they must be unified enough to ensure that the regime cannot intimidate or co-opt its supporters and more importantly UCID’s leader must stay true to his words. There are rays of hope, but the odds are still against this government’s fall. If those public rallies are enough for breaking Mr rayale’s government will remain to be seen .That may be wishful thinking, but you can’t say this nation haven’t been there and done that!
As the presidential election is fast approaching , the somaliland president Dahir Riyale is showing signs he fears losing his grip on power. As a result, the recent bold but controversial and ill-advised decision to cancel the voter registration list and the ousting of the interpeace agency officer Mr Ruben Zamora explained his deeper concerns over voter turnout in the opposition’s favor!!! Since his numerous and illegitimates extensions by the guurti ,the mood inside somaliland in general, suggests that Mr Riyale remains poised for ultimate defeat. Some seven years into Mr Riyale’s reign,nothing much had changed. And to openly declare he no longer has what it takes to lead this great nation would NOT require bottle, honesty and a great degree of integrity. It’s plain to see!!! In fact, bottle and honesty and integrity are Qualities which , amongst cash and power obsessed african leaders are in painfully short supply. But qualities which, thankfully, we can still find in our nation to force him to leave as he continues to undermine us.Mr riyale’s name in somaliland is synonymous with chaos, and failure in a massive scale .
Those co-ordinated moves reflect the president attempts to derail the election and plunge the country into a turmoil! Many believe this will be Mr Rayale last two months in charge of the country. He has not only lost the momentum but also the support he afforded last election as public anger mounts over the rife corruption,and the slow and illusive pace of securing our recognition!!! he has failed to produce the answers to the country’s long-standing aspirations and hopes. His mind games are up, the public and the world are incredulous at the president’s ability to hold a fair and peaceful election. Perhaps Mr Riyale has a dream that the guurti will keep him out of trouble and one step ahead of turmoil again. Then, again, it is all dreams for Mr Riyale . Somaliland Parliament ruled unlawful a joint decision by Rayale administration and National Electoral Commission’s to attempt to suspend the voter registration list in the upcoming presidential election. This decision has flown straight to the president’s face and calls for an end of Mr Riyale’s mischiefs. He has long taken for granted for being at the helm of the country and must have now realised that his reckless behavior is coming to an end! What self-delusion from his part! He has reap the rewards of the late president Egal after his sudden departure and instead of redeeming himself from his not so glorious dark past, he has unfortunately chosen to carry on the same path ! he has been trusted with the highest job in the land. I bet he has never given it a thought, let alone entertain it! not even in his wildest dreams of being the head of this state ! how can Mr Rayale be ungrateful but also the same people he has betrayed still has a tiny faith after seven years and nothing to show for is beyond anyone and defy our common sense!!! It’s shocking !!!let’s not make the same mistake ! he does not deserve the benefit of the doubt and should be shown the door without remorses. It’s all over for this government, they are beyond saving and are now destined for the scrapheap where they belong.
Him and his government failed spectacularly to live up to our expectations but not to their reputations! let’s make sure there is not a last shot at redemption. They had and chose to ignore it. Fair and square! the bottom line is to give kulmiye and his leader a crack at it. Success in Somaliland for Mr Rayale and Udub will change nothing much and would come as a nasty shock to everyone who believed we had turned some dramatic corner.And more dramatically Somaliland as an independent nation would seem as distant a hope as it ever was and perhaps will kiss it goodbye!
Amin Ali

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